Bucs +5 @ PANTHERS CORRECT!
As you probably know Cam Newton got into a car accident this week and will likely not play this weekend. Hopefully he heals quickly and can help the Panthers in their playoff push but in the meantime Derek Anderson will be at the helm. Now many people will look back at the week 1 matchup where he led the Panthers to a victory over the Bucs. But don't forget that the Bucs started the season off very poorly and are playing much better since then. Also they have that game to watch tape and prepare for Derek better this time. Get in on this one before the spread changes and trust me it will by Sunday.
Wagering: $200
Bengals +1 @ BROWNS CORRECT!
Will the Manziel era start off with a win? Possibly. But I wouldn't bet on it. Look for the Bengals to get revenge on the Browns after losing at home earlier this season. AJ Green is playing great and the Bengals defense will give Johnny Football a welcome to the NFL gift this Sunday.
Wagering: $200
Cowboys +3.5 @ EAGLES CORRECT!
The Eagles looked great on Thanksgiving in Dallas. And then terrible last week against Seattle. (both of those outcomes we predicted correctly btw ;)) This is a critical game for both teams with heavy playoff implications and it is a prime time game so it should make for a great matchup. The Cowboys will be looking for revenge and Philly is beat up after last weeks tough game. The 3.5 points may come in handy on this game.
Wagering: $300
Redskins +7 @ GIANTS INCORRECT
The Giants lost to the Jaguars a few weeks back. And yes they beat the Titans handily last week but so has everyone else. Just on principle no one should bet on the Giants with this spread. The Skins have a legit chance to win outright since this is a division game and the Giants just aren't very good and the Skins defense is playing very well at times.
Wagering: $250
Wagers
Bank Roll: $2300 ($950 on the line)
Updated Bankroll: $2750 (+450!)
What a great week, 3-1! Skins got beat bad by Odell Beckham Jr., but everyone else came through including a brutal beatdown in Cleveland and easy money in Philly.
What a great week, 3-1! Skins got beat bad by Odell Beckham Jr., but everyone else came through including a brutal beatdown in Cleveland and easy money in Philly.
I don't see my previous comment, not sure if it went through. My question was, what analysis do you do to determine the outcome? Do you use algorithms? It also looks like you don't pick a set amount of games each week, what do you look for to determine your confidence for each game to actually put money on a side versus not?
ReplyDeletejHo
ReplyDeleteThanks for checking out my blog! For my picks I don't use algorithms. I do a lot of research into games that look like they're worth betting on and just list the ones that I feel strongly about. There's always a few games each week that you can get a good grasp on through research. The wagering amount is based on how confident I am in the pick. I felt very strongly about Seattle against Philly two weeks ago and this past week I was confident the Cowboys would cover against Philly. Thankfully I was right on both :)
Hi RJW,
DeleteThanks for getting back to me and congratulations on the great week. It looks like my first post never went though, only my follow up. To sum up I came across your comment and link through NFLpickles so that's why I was wondering if you had a similar mathematical process as him.
I feel you about being able to find a few games each week that based on stats and injury/contextual player info you can smell out a good bet. What are your thoughts on tonight's game? I'm thinking the Titans want to loose this game more than the Jags, not that NFL teams usually try to loose games ever but maybe with them wanting a QB and a loss ensuring a top 3 pick they may just want the win less. Do you agree?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJust made a reply and it disappeared somehow..
ReplyDeleteThis is a terrible matchup obviously. I had to make a pick in a spread pool im in so I looked around and saw that every expert picked the jags with the only reason being that these teams split the past few years. My initial gut feeling was Titans and I had even considered picking up the Titans defense for my fantasy team this week. I went with the points and Titans mainly b/c I figure other ppl won't and I can get ahead if they do cover. Bottom line is this is a bad game to bet on, though the under seems to be an okay bet
you're right on everyone picking the Jags, 20 out of 22 ppl took them in my pool. Are you playing in your championship game? I am too but I stuck with the Pats D instead of picking up "X" team playing the Jags -- that has worked so well in the past.
ReplyDeleteYea I have one team in the championship. Picked up Ravens against jags last week which worked well. Previously picked up Cleveland for this final week. Thankfully I didn't use the Titans
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