Quarterbacks
Three QBs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why
$8800 – ANDREW LUCK vs Steelers
Andrew Luck is the DeMarco Murray of the QB position! Outside of Week 2 (a respectable 19.88 points), his lowest score of the year is 24.26, and he has four games this year of 29 points or more. Best of all? No one is talking about him, and his ownership numbers are minuscule every week. To put Luck’s fantasy dominance in perspective: everyone’s favorite State Farm rep has only two games of 29 points or more, and he has games of 18, 10, and 10 on his 2014 resume. And really, that’s what my Luck love this week is all about. While everyone who plays fantasy football (and probably even some who do not) will be playing Rodgers this week, Luck makes for a perfect pivot. Even in blowouts, Luck has been throwing 40+ times, which gives him a super high floor. And his ceiling is as high as Rodgers’. Sure, Rodgers and Luck could end up scoring the same amount this week (heck, Rodgers could easily end up outscoring Luck), but it’s just good fantasy football strategy! If you can get the same floor and the same ceiling with substantially lower ownership, you take it!
$7200 – TOM BRADY vs Bears
The Bears have a bottom-10 pass coverage unit (PFF), and their pass rush is remarkably average (contrary to what you may have thought!). With my boy Brady finally sharpening into shape (that’s not a real saying – I just made it up; that would be cool, except it makes no sense), and with Gronk fully healthy, I like Brady for a big game on Sunday, at a severely discounted price.
$6300 – NICK FOLES vs Cardinals
Foles has actually been pretty bad this year. But so has the Cardinals’ pass D. What’s more, Foles and the Eagles have had a bye week to get their stuff together. In what should be a game in which the Eagles focus on the pass (facing a bottom-10 pass D and a top-10 run D? – okay!), and in what should be a high-scoring affair, I see Foles having an extremely high floor (I’d say 225 yards and 2 TD – not bad for the price!). And, of course, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. I love Foles as a tournament play this week.
Three QBs I Will NOT Be Using This Week – And Why
$9000 – AARON RODGERS vs Saints
Okay, so this is actually cheating a little bit. I am using Rodgers on my cash game lineup this week (in my opinion, you pretty much have to!), and I am entering that lineup in a smattering of small-stakesGPPs. So you will see Rodgers on a small percentage of my tournament lineups. And it should be noted: I love Rodgers as a player and think he is quite possibly (quite probably? – or, quite probviously) the best QB in the NFL. Want more? I think there’s a very high chance he is the highest-scoring QB of the week. How could you not think that? But his ownership is going to be ridiculously high. There are no “sure things” in football, ever (hey, I’m a Pats fan; want to talk about “sure things”? – let’s talk about the Super Bowl after the 2007 season!), and with how high Rodgers’ ownership will be, it is simply a mathematically superior play to roll out a QB who has a shot at being the highest-scoring QB of the week if Rodgers misses his mark! Even if Rodgers scores 25, you would gain a big edge if you can find 30 points with another QB, and can also have the opportunity to allocate that extra salary elsewhere! (Which is exactly why I am using 9 different QBs this week – all on rosters that are otherwise pretty much the same!)
$8400 – RUSSELL WILSON vs Panthers
The Panthers do have a horrible pass D, but I simply cannot justify using Russell this week, for three reasons. 1) I believe his ownership numbers will be higher than I would like. 2) After he was severely undervalued last week, I feel he is slightly overvalued this week. 3) I have a hunch that the Seahawks will try to reestablish their ground-game dominance. That was their modus operandi last year, and it won them a Super Bowl; the last two weeks, they have gotten away from that (largely attributable to game flow, of course, but still…), and they have gone 0-2. I think the Seahawks will run a ton on Sunday, and if they do, this will lower Russell’s ceiling quite a bit. Quite simply, there are other QBs around this same price (and below this same price) who I like a lot more.
$7000 – JAY CUTLER vs Patriots
It’s not as if everyone is on Cutler, and you’re going to read this and be like, “Oh, good point, I should get away from Cutler myself.” I mean…pretty much no one is on him this week to begin with. But in case you saw him as a sneaky play, I don’t like him. The Pats’ pass D (for all the Pats’ other faults) is The Truth – you know, like Paul Pierce, except without the weird, uncoordinated-looking jumper. I do not like Cutler for a bounce-back game here.
Running Backs
Three RBs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why
$8400 – ARIAN FOSTER vs Titans
As with Luck, this is all about ownership! While everyone gravitates toward DeMarco and Forte, I will be on Foster. (Side note: did you know that Foster has actually outscored DeMarco three straight weeks? All by small margins, but I would be very happy with a two or three point edge with Foster, with a slightly lower salary and substantially lower ownership numbers!) Add to the consistent carries, the passing game involvement, and the goal line looks the fact that Foster is facing a bottom-10 run D (PFF), and that the Titans are starting a rookie in his first career games (which should hopefully lead to short fields, scoring opportunities, an early lead, and clock-killing mode), and Foster is my favorite play of the week.
$7100 – MARSHAWN LYNCH vs Panthers
The concern here is that the Seahawks will have trouble adjusting to a full-fledged run game without a true FB in the mix. With a week to work through the kinks, however – and with what I expect to be a dedication to establishing a ground game (see my thoughts on Russ above) – I like Marshawn a lot. Sure, he’s had a couple consecutive disappointing weeks (“Hello, lower ownership numbers – nice to see you here”), but this is the same guy who put up games of 28, 27, and 22 through the first five weeks (four games). Against – again – a bottom-10 run D (PFF), Marshawn makes for a tremendous, hopefully-low-owned play.
$4600 – BEN TATE vs Raiders
Especially in large-field tourneys at lower buy-in levels, I expect Tate to be incredibly low-owned. While the Browns did lose Alex Mack (who accounted for about 40% of the entire line’s Top 10 run-blocking grade), they are still an extremely strong run blocking unit. While there is no clear explanation for why last week went the way it did for the Browns’ run game, it should be more of an outlier than a new “normal.” They get another crack at a bottom-10 run defense, and they are wanting to go back to using just 2 RBs, instead of trying to work 3 guys in there. That should mean back up to 22-25 carries for Tate, and it will mean massive opportunities for fantasy goodness at an extremely low ownership.
Three RBs I Will NOT Be Using This Week – And Why
$8600 / $8800 – DEMARCO MURRAY /MATT FORTE vs Redskins / Patriots
Either one of these guys could be the highest-scoring RB of the week. If they are, they will not be on my teams. But if these guys fail to score a TD (not all that unlikely), or if these guys somehow get held in check (far more unlikely!), the large percentage of the field that owns them will be at a disadvantage against those who faded them and went with the same ceiling elsewhere.
$6700 – JAMAAL CHARLES vs Rams
Every week, it seems, I hear this: “Jamaal Charles did not get as many catches as I was expecting on Sunday.” You know why? Because the Chiefs are not using him in the same way they did last year! We all “know” that Jamaal is a PPRmonster, but the reality is that his targets the last three weeks have looked like this: 3, 2, 3. Until the Chiefs start using him in the pass game more, I will be fading him – especially with his ownership numbers about to reach the levels they are likely to reach this week, at this price!
$5800 – LESEAN MCCOY vs Cardinals
Look – Shady McCoy is awesome. And I think he may very well end up being the best running back in the NFL throughout the second half of the season, as the bye week was surely good for him, and his O-line is finally getting back to full health. But my hope is that his ownership numbers reach a peak this week with this tough-to-pass-up price, and that the Cardinals’ stout run D holds him down. If this happens, his price should stay low, and his ownership should also be much lower next week (in a much tastier matchup, against the Texans’ beatable run D). Obviously, Shady has the talent to beat even the toughest of matchups, but I’d rather invest my salary in a pick that has a higher floor than Shady will have in this matchup.
Wide Receivers
Three WRs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why
$5500 – JEREMY MACLIN vs Cardinals
We as a fantasy community are a bit silly at times in the way we view things – and one of the ways in which this is especially true is the “what have you done for me lately?” approach many of us take. What has Maclin done for us lately? Last week, he was on a bye. The week before that, he put up a dud. He’s done nothing for us lately, and that will hopefully be enough to scare some people off him (heck, look at WR rankings around the Internet this week; Maclin is surprisingly low in many places!). Before his dud, he was pacing the NFL in targets, and he is one of theNFL’s leaders in TD opportunities. This is a great week to invest in Maclin – at a terrific price!
$4900 – MICHAEL FLOYD vs Cardinals
If Floyd only gets the six targets he has been averaging this season, I will regret this pick. But given game flow assumptions, I expect the Cardinals to not only be passing, but to also be attempting to push the ball downfield. If that happens, Floyd could see 8 to 10 targets, and is a strong candidate for one of those “100 yard, 2 TD” games we are always attempting to identify.
$3500 – DAVANTE ADAMS vs Saints
Last week, when many of the sharpestDFS players were on Davante, I told my buddy Collin that I did not think Davante’s breakout would come until the next week. That’s this week. I stand by that prediction. In fact, I am backing it up fully by using Davante on every one of my rosters (that’s not hyperbole; I am literally using him on every single one of my rosters). With Rodgers finally set to have to throw more than 30 times, I like Davante for 8 or 9 targets, and he could easily turn this level of opportunity into 20+ points. I’m hoping many of the sharpest DFS players will be off him after he had only one target last week, and I’m hoping the bulk of DFS players will not even consider Davante because he has not yet had a breakout game. At what will likely be ownership numbers under 4%, he could be a true game changer this weekend!
Three WRs I Will NOT Be Using This Week This Week – And Why
$8000 – ANTONIO BROWN vs Colts
I love Antonio Brown. It does not get any more consistently dominant than what he has done the last couple seasons! However, this Colts secondary is for real. I do not think they will completely shut down Antonio (I don’t think anyone can!), but I also do not think he will score enough fantasy points to come close to justifying his salary.
$6100 / $6000 – BRANDON MARSHALL/ ALSHON JEFFERY vs Patriots
Even at their discounted prices, I am off both these studs this week. The main reason: We have no idea how the Patriots will deploy Revis. Do you really want to select one of these guys only to discover on Sunday that the Pats decided to shadow him with Revis? Absolutely not! If Revis plays strict shadow coverage on one of these guys, the other guy could have a very good game, but I’m not going to play Russian roulette with a six-shooter that has three bullets in the chamber (I’m not a gun guy, nor am I much of a Russian roulette enthusiast; did I get those terms right?).
$4700 – DOUG BALDWIN vs Panthers
How many huge games did Doug Baldwin have last year? You see? Last year, Harvin basically did not play the entire season, and yet, Baldwin was not a jump-off-the-page fantasy asset. He will have some big games this year, but I’m not going to try to predict when they will come – especially not on a week when his ownership numbers are sure to be much higher than they should be!
Tight Ends
Three TEs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why
$5900 – ROB GRONKOWSKI vs Bears
He’s fully healthy. He’s Gronk. He’s priced at $5900. Stack him with Brady this week and enjoy both the rewards and the extra salary this leaves you!
$4000 – JORDAN REED vs Cowboys
The Cowboys – as good as they have actually been on defense – have been one of the worst teams at covering the tight end. Even with Colt McCoy coming out of retirement (What’s that? He never left the league? How about that…), I like Reed this week. As the Redskins should be playing from behind, they’ll have to throw, and Reed should have a high floor as a result, with his talent giving him an extremely high ceiling for the price.
$3200 – ZACH ERTZ vs Cardinals
Ertz is not on the field as much as we would all like, but he is still getting plenty of opportunities (targets his last three games: 6, 6, 5). The Cardinals remain one of the worst teams in the NFL against the TE, and Ertz is an extreme-upside talent. His floor, honestly, should be about 3x this salary (you can’t beat that!), and his ceiling should be much higher than that!
Three TEs I Will NOT Be Using This Week – And Why
$5600 – JIMMY GRAHAM vs Packers
Sure, he’ll be used in “passing situations” and “red zone opportunities” in what is expected to be a very high-scoring game. But honestly, how did it work using Graham last week? Or how did it work using Calvin Johnson the last couple weeks that he played? When a guy is injured, you never know if the team is putting him out there as a decoy or as a true threat, and while Jimmy has a high ceiling, there are other guys – much safer guys (guys who won’t put you at risk of taking a zero!) – from whom you can reach the same ceiling.
$4300 – DELANIE WALKER vs Texans
A rookie QB making his first career start? No thanks! I’ll leave all Titans pass catchers alone.
$3800 – TRAVIS KELCE vs Rams
I was driving the Travis Kelce bandwagon at the start of the season, and even in the games in which he did not go off, he still brought a great return on his salary! I put the bandwagon on cruise control and jump-rolled out of the driver’s seat back when Kelce had to square off against Patrick Willis, however, and I have not yet gotten back on. It’s not about the usage (we all keep complaining about it, but he’s averaging 5 targets per game – which isn’t awful, especially in this price range), but it is about the matchup. For all their faults, the Rams are very strong at defending the TE. I love Kelce’s talent, but I’d rather look elsewhere this week.
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If you’ll excuse me, I’m going to make a choice to go grocery shopping now. My wife is out of town all week, and I’ve been living off Mexican carryout. It’s probably time to choose something different – maybe some prime rib, some veggies, and a few good nights of grilling.
In the meantime, you should choose to comment below if you have any comments to share, or if you have any players you are choosing this week that you think others should know about!
Good luck this week everyone!
