More lineup info for week 8!

Heres some great contrarian insight from Rotogrinders

Market Exploitation:FanDuel

Quarterback

Cam Newton ($8,100) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Starting a struggling quarterback against the Legion of Boom seems awfully enticing, doesn’t it?

But what if the Legion of Boom is a shell of its former self? Seattle has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks through seven weeks, thanks to five straight games of two or more touchdown tosses from opposing passers.

The Seahawks are only allowing 238.5 passing yards per contest, but signal callers are completing a sky-high 68.8 percent of passes against Seattle’s secondary. Only three defenses give up a higher completion percentage.

Newton is FanDuel’s 14th-most expensive quarterback for Week 8 after a $300 price tag drop. While he’s certainly not a steal at $8,100, I see Newton as an against-the-grain option with decently high upside. Newton, quarterbacking a team with no semblance of a running game, could have volume on his side. Seattle is facing 34.8 pass attempts per game this season.

Running Back

Ben Tate ($7,000) vs. Oakland Raiders

Tate is coming off a game in which he tanked in a favorable matchup against the Jaguars – and in Week 8, he comes complete with a $300 reduction inFanDuel price.

Tate is the primary running back on a team that wishes to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, and this week goes against an Oakland defense that sees the most rushing attempts (36.2) of any defense in the NFL this year. Tate, barring disastrous game flow, could be in for an enormous workload against the Raiders. Only one team – the Patriots – have failed to gain 100 yards on the ground against Oakland.

Tate is notching a decent .59 fantasy points per touch in four games this season, and with the Raiders allowing 145.3 rushing yards, Tate could be an arbitrage play on FanDuel’s top-tier Week 8 runners.

Wide Receivers

Jordan Matthews ($6,000) at Arizona Cardinals

Matthews’ FanDuel price tag continues its fall as the Eagles return from their bye week. He’s now $300 cheaper than he was two weeks ago following three straight pedestrian stat lines. This week, of course, Matthews plays a Cardinals’ defense giving up more fantasy production to receivers than all but three teams.

Matthews, now cheaper than Robert Woods and Louis Murphy (to name a couple), has caught at least four passes over his past four games. The Cardinals, meanwhile, had allowed an average of 20 receptions to opposing receivers before they shut down a lifeless Oakland passing attack in Week 7.

Here’s the equation: Philadelphia’s run game is stuck in the proverbial mud + Arizona’s run defense is stout = considerable passing volume for Nick Foles and company. Matthews, who is running a respectable 28.5 pass routes per game, makes for a slightly risky if not sensible tournament play in Week 8.

Cecil Shorts ($6,200) vs. Miami Dolphins

Shorts is nothing less than a target hog in the Blake Bortles-led Jacksonville offense. He’s averaged 8.9 targets with the rookie at the helm, and that won’t change just because the Jags had success on the ground last week against Cleveland. Bortles will still have to throw quite a bit.

Miami’s secondary looked to have shut down Chicago’s big pass catchers in Week 7, though I think there’s a fair argument that Jay Cutler effectively shut down the Bears’ aerial attack. The Dolphins’ cornerbacks haven’t been all that impressive through seven weeks. Pro Football Focus grades Brent Grimes and Cortland Finnegan as the league’s 40th and 27th best cover corners.

A $200 hit to Shorts’ FanDuel price tag brings him down to the site’s 42nd-priciest wide receiver. I’m greedy on Shorts this week.

Tight End

Martellus Bennett ($5,900) at New England Patriots

Featuring the Unicorn in this space so often in 2014 probably isn’t a great sign of recent production, though it’s worth noting that a disappointing outing for Bennett constitutes five grabs for 58 yards, or 8.3 FanDuel points (as he posted in Week 7 against Miami).

Bennett has fizzled after a white-hot start to the season. After a $100 FanDuel price tag reduction, he faces off against a New England defense that, in the midst of linebacker injury woes, has allowed 28 fantasy points to tight ends over the past couple weeks.

Bennett, the second-most targeted tight end in football, could very well be set to reap the benefits of the Pats’ tight end coverage struggles. He’ll be an understandably unpopular Week 8 option at a price that has consistently dropped since Week 5. Be greedy with the Unicorn.

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Market Exploitation:DraftKings

Quarterback

Jay Cutler ($7,000) at New England Patriots

Would I like ole’ Cutty to be cheaper here? Sure. The general daily gaming public couldn’t be more down on theDGAF metric all-star, however, and I think this matchup presents a prime opportunity for market exploitation.

Cutler, fantasy’s No. 3 quarterback headed into Week 7’s debacle against Miami, saw his DraftKings price tag drop by $900 – enough to grab my attention in Week 8. New England, when adjusted for strength of schedule, is giving up 17 fantasy points per game to opposing passers.

The Patriots are giving up a paltry 6.4 yards per pass attempt – eighth best in the NFL – but have faced a string of less-than-stellar quarterbacks. Even after last week’s meltdown, Cutler has a .48 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT). Throw out Week 7 and that jumps to a healthy .51 FPAT. Daily fantasy fear abounds this week with the Chicago offense. Jump in.

Running Back

LeSean McCoy ($5,800) at Arizona Cardinals

Shady is no longer priced as a top-10 option on DraftKings. He’s 12th in pricing after a horrifically disappointing stretch that saw the Eagles’ offense struggle mightily with a banged-up offensive line.

McCoy’s price dropped by an incredible $2,000 as we head into Week 8. He faces off against a stout Arizona front seven that allows the third fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing running backs. Here’s the rub: Philly’s offensive line is slowly but surely getting healthy, and even without an intact set of blockers, McCoy most recently ripped off 149 yards in three quarters against the Giants.

We don’t often get a monstrous discount on a runner like Shady. Plug him in.

Wide Receivers

Brandin Cooks ($4,700) vs. Green Bay Packers

Cooks in Week 8 represents a (very) cheap investment in what could be one of the highest scoring affairs of 2014. The rookie, after a hot start to the season, has faded of late, but still plays the vast majority of the Saints’ offensive snaps and runs a decent number of weekly pass routes. That’s important.

Cooks’ DraftKings price tag fell by $1,100 after Week 7’s 4.3-point performance against Detroit’s crushingly tough pass defense. Cooks is still averaging 12.4DraftKings points per week and sees 5.6 weekly targets from Drew Brees.

Think of Cooks as a bottom-barrel investment in a game that has a bunch of top-dollar DFS options. He’ll be in quite a few of my tourney lineups. More than 50 receivers are priced ahead of Cooks this week.

Vincent Jackson ($5,100) vs. Minnesota Vikings

VJax, as injury talk and trade rumors swirl amidst a statistical dry spell for the hulking pass catcher, saw his DraftKingssalary drop by $800. I’m so greedy on Jackson, I can hardly see straight. It’s a medical condition. Look it up.

Twenty-one receivers are now priced ahead of Jackson, who takes on a Vikings’ secondary that appears to be solid. A little context, however, tells a different story. In at least four games this season, Minnesota opponents have more or less called off the offensive dogs after mounting big leads against the Vikings. Receivers, in other words, haven’t had to do a whole lot against Minnesota.

The Bills last week offered a glimpse of how vulnerable the Minnesota secondary might be, as Buffalo receivers sliced through Vikings cover guys for 19 catches and 195 yards. Barring game flow disaster – always a threat with teams as awful as Minnesota and Tampa – I think Jackson has a crazy-high fantasy floor in this one.

Tight End

Zach Ertz ($3,200) at Arizona Cardinals

Ertz, after a $600 reduction in DraftKingsprice, is essentially free. And now he gets his crack at a Cardinals defense allowing 5.9 receptions and 69.9 yards to tight ends.

Ertz is running 26.1 pass routes per game – not a terribly low number, though we’d like to see that increase a bit going forward. I think it’s plenty of usage to take advantage of an Arizona coverage unit that has proven exploitable when teams decide to use the tight end as a weapon. It surprised me to see Ertz is notching 10.1 fantasy points per game this year.

Probably Ertz comes with a downside that makes him nothing more than a tournament option. His low salary frees up a ton of cash for elite backs and receivers too.

Good luck!

Week 8 Draftkings/FanDuel Insight

Here's some helpful advice from rotogrinders.com for help with your lineups!

Quarterbacks

Three QBs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why

$8800 – ANDREW LUCK vs Steelers

Andrew Luck is the DeMarco Murray of the QB position! Outside of Week 2 (a respectable 19.88 points), his lowest score of the year is 24.26, and he has four games this year of 29 points or more. Best of all? No one is talking about him, and his ownership numbers are minuscule every week. To put Luck’s fantasy dominance in perspective: everyone’s favorite State Farm rep has only two games of 29 points or more, and he has games of 18, 10, and 10 on his 2014 resume. And really, that’s what my Luck love this week is all about. While everyone who plays fantasy football (and probably even some who do not) will be playing Rodgers this week, Luck makes for a perfect pivot. Even in blowouts, Luck has been throwing 40+ times, which gives him a super high floor. And his ceiling is as high as Rodgers’. Sure, Rodgers and Luck could end up scoring the same amount this week (heck, Rodgers could easily end up outscoring Luck), but it’s just good fantasy football strategy! If you can get the same floor and the same ceiling with substantially lower ownership, you take it!

$7200 – TOM BRADY vs Bears

The Bears have a bottom-10 pass coverage unit (PFF), and their pass rush is remarkably average (contrary to what you may have thought!). With my boy Brady finally sharpening into shape (that’s not a real saying – I just made it up; that would be cool, except it makes no sense), and with Gronk fully healthy, I like Brady for a big game on Sunday, at a severely discounted price.

$6300 – NICK FOLES vs Cardinals

Foles has actually been pretty bad this year. But so has the Cardinals’ pass D. What’s more, Foles and the Eagles have had a bye week to get their stuff together. In what should be a game in which the Eagles focus on the pass (facing a bottom-10 pass D and a top-10 run D? – okay!), and in what should be a high-scoring affair, I see Foles having an extremely high floor (I’d say 225 yards and 2 TD – not bad for the price!). And, of course, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. I love Foles as a tournament play this week.

Three QBs I Will NOT Be Using This Week – And Why

$9000 – AARON RODGERS vs Saints

Okay, so this is actually cheating a little bit. I am using Rodgers on my cash game lineup this week (in my opinion, you pretty much have to!), and I am entering that lineup in a smattering of small-stakesGPPs. So you will see Rodgers on a small percentage of my tournament lineups. And it should be noted: I love Rodgers as a player and think he is quite possibly (quite probably? – or, quite probviously) the best QB in the NFL. Want more? I think there’s a very high chance he is the highest-scoring QB of the week. How could you not think that? But his ownership is going to be ridiculously high. There are no “sure things” in football, ever (hey, I’m a Pats fan; want to talk about “sure things”? – let’s talk about the Super Bowl after the 2007 season!), and with how high Rodgers’ ownership will be, it is simply a mathematically superior play to roll out a QB who has a shot at being the highest-scoring QB of the week if Rodgers misses his mark! Even if Rodgers scores 25, you would gain a big edge if you can find 30 points with another QB, and can also have the opportunity to allocate that extra salary elsewhere! (Which is exactly why I am using 9 different QBs this week – all on rosters that are otherwise pretty much the same!)

$8400 – RUSSELL WILSON vs Panthers

The Panthers do have a horrible pass D, but I simply cannot justify using Russell this week, for three reasons. 1) I believe his ownership numbers will be higher than I would like. 2) After he was severely undervalued last week, I feel he is slightly overvalued this week. 3) I have a hunch that the Seahawks will try to reestablish their ground-game dominance. That was their modus operandi last year, and it won them a Super Bowl; the last two weeks, they have gotten away from that (largely attributable to game flow, of course, but still…), and they have gone 0-2. I think the Seahawks will run a ton on Sunday, and if they do, this will lower Russell’s ceiling quite a bit. Quite simply, there are other QBs around this same price (and below this same price) who I like a lot more.

$7000 – JAY CUTLER vs Patriots

It’s not as if everyone is on Cutler, and you’re going to read this and be like, “Oh, good point, I should get away from Cutler myself.” I mean…pretty much no one is on him this week to begin with. But in case you saw him as a sneaky play, I don’t like him. The Pats’ pass D (for all the Pats’ other faults) is The Truth – you know, like Paul Pierce, except without the weird, uncoordinated-looking jumper. I do not like Cutler for a bounce-back game here.

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Running Backs

Three RBs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why

$8400 – ARIAN FOSTER vs Titans

As with Luck, this is all about ownership! While everyone gravitates toward DeMarco and Forte, I will be on Foster. (Side note: did you know that Foster has actually outscored DeMarco three straight weeks? All by small margins, but I would be very happy with a two or three point edge with Foster, with a slightly lower salary and substantially lower ownership numbers!) Add to the consistent carries, the passing game involvement, and the goal line looks the fact that Foster is facing a bottom-10 run D (PFF), and that the Titans are starting a rookie in his first career games (which should hopefully lead to short fields, scoring opportunities, an early lead, and clock-killing mode), and Foster is my favorite play of the week.

$7100 – MARSHAWN LYNCH vs Panthers

The concern here is that the Seahawks will have trouble adjusting to a full-fledged run game without a true FB in the mix. With a week to work through the kinks, however – and with what I expect to be a dedication to establishing a ground game (see my thoughts on Russ above) – I like Marshawn a lot. Sure, he’s had a couple consecutive disappointing weeks (“Hello, lower ownership numbers – nice to see you here”), but this is the same guy who put up games of 28, 27, and 22 through the first five weeks (four games). Against – again – a bottom-10 run D (PFF), Marshawn makes for a tremendous, hopefully-low-owned play.

$4600 – BEN TATE vs Raiders

Especially in large-field tourneys at lower buy-in levels, I expect Tate to be incredibly low-owned. While the Browns did lose Alex Mack (who accounted for about 40% of the entire line’s Top 10 run-blocking grade), they are still an extremely strong run blocking unit. While there is no clear explanation for why last week went the way it did for the Browns’ run game, it should be more of an outlier than a new “normal.” They get another crack at a bottom-10 run defense, and they are wanting to go back to using just 2 RBs, instead of trying to work 3 guys in there. That should mean back up to 22-25 carries for Tate, and it will mean massive opportunities for fantasy goodness at an extremely low ownership.

Three RBs I Will NOT Be Using This Week – And Why

$8600 / $8800 – DEMARCO MURRAY /MATT FORTE vs Redskins / Patriots

Either one of these guys could be the highest-scoring RB of the week. If they are, they will not be on my teams. But if these guys fail to score a TD (not all that unlikely), or if these guys somehow get held in check (far more unlikely!), the large percentage of the field that owns them will be at a disadvantage against those who faded them and went with the same ceiling elsewhere.

$6700 – JAMAAL CHARLES vs Rams

Every week, it seems, I hear this: “Jamaal Charles did not get as many catches as I was expecting on Sunday.” You know why? Because the Chiefs are not using him in the same way they did last year! We all “know” that Jamaal is a PPRmonster, but the reality is that his targets the last three weeks have looked like this: 3, 2, 3. Until the Chiefs start using him in the pass game more, I will be fading him – especially with his ownership numbers about to reach the levels they are likely to reach this week, at this price!

$5800 – LESEAN MCCOY vs Cardinals

Look – Shady McCoy is awesome. And I think he may very well end up being the best running back in the NFL throughout the second half of the season, as the bye week was surely good for him, and his O-line is finally getting back to full health. But my hope is that his ownership numbers reach a peak this week with this tough-to-pass-up price, and that the Cardinals’ stout run D holds him down. If this happens, his price should stay low, and his ownership should also be much lower next week (in a much tastier matchup, against the Texans’ beatable run D). Obviously, Shady has the talent to beat even the toughest of matchups, but I’d rather invest my salary in a pick that has a higher floor than Shady will have in this matchup.

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Wide Receivers

Three WRs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why

$5500 – JEREMY MACLIN vs Cardinals

We as a fantasy community are a bit silly at times in the way we view things – and one of the ways in which this is especially true is the “what have you done for me lately?” approach many of us take. What has Maclin done for us lately? Last week, he was on a bye. The week before that, he put up a dud. He’s done nothing for us lately, and that will hopefully be enough to scare some people off him (heck, look at WR rankings around the Internet this week; Maclin is surprisingly low in many places!). Before his dud, he was pacing the NFL in targets, and he is one of theNFL’s leaders in TD opportunities. This is a great week to invest in Maclin – at a terrific price!

$4900 – MICHAEL FLOYD vs Cardinals

If Floyd only gets the six targets he has been averaging this season, I will regret this pick. But given game flow assumptions, I expect the Cardinals to not only be passing, but to also be attempting to push the ball downfield. If that happens, Floyd could see 8 to 10 targets, and is a strong candidate for one of those “100 yard, 2 TD” games we are always attempting to identify.

$3500 – DAVANTE ADAMS vs Saints

Last week, when many of the sharpestDFS players were on Davante, I told my buddy Collin that I did not think Davante’s breakout would come until the next week. That’s this week. I stand by that prediction. In fact, I am backing it up fully by using Davante on every one of my rosters (that’s not hyperbole; I am literally using him on every single one of my rosters). With Rodgers finally set to have to throw more than 30 times, I like Davante for 8 or 9 targets, and he could easily turn this level of opportunity into 20+ points. I’m hoping many of the sharpest DFS players will be off him after he had only one target last week, and I’m hoping the bulk of DFS players will not even consider Davante because he has not yet had a breakout game. At what will likely be ownership numbers under 4%, he could be a true game changer this weekend!

Three WRs I Will NOT Be Using This Week This Week – And Why

$8000 – ANTONIO BROWN vs Colts

I love Antonio Brown. It does not get any more consistently dominant than what he has done the last couple seasons! However, this Colts secondary is for real. I do not think they will completely shut down Antonio (I don’t think anyone can!), but I also do not think he will score enough fantasy points to come close to justifying his salary.

$6100 / $6000 – BRANDON MARSHALL/ ALSHON JEFFERY vs Patriots

Even at their discounted prices, I am off both these studs this week. The main reason: We have no idea how the Patriots will deploy Revis. Do you really want to select one of these guys only to discover on Sunday that the Pats decided to shadow him with Revis? Absolutely not! If Revis plays strict shadow coverage on one of these guys, the other guy could have a very good game, but I’m not going to play Russian roulette with a six-shooter that has three bullets in the chamber (I’m not a gun guy, nor am I much of a Russian roulette enthusiast; did I get those terms right?).

$4700 – DOUG BALDWIN vs Panthers

How many huge games did Doug Baldwin have last year? You see? Last year, Harvin basically did not play the entire season, and yet, Baldwin was not a jump-off-the-page fantasy asset. He will have some big games this year, but I’m not going to try to predict when they will come – especially not on a week when his ownership numbers are sure to be much higher than they should be!

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Tight Ends

Three TEs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why

$5900 – ROB GRONKOWSKI vs Bears

He’s fully healthy. He’s Gronk. He’s priced at $5900. Stack him with Brady this week and enjoy both the rewards and the extra salary this leaves you!

$4000 – JORDAN REED vs Cowboys

The Cowboys – as good as they have actually been on defense – have been one of the worst teams at covering the tight end. Even with Colt McCoy coming out of retirement (What’s that? He never left the league? How about that…), I like Reed this week. As the Redskins should be playing from behind, they’ll have to throw, and Reed should have a high floor as a result, with his talent giving him an extremely high ceiling for the price.

$3200 – ZACH ERTZ vs Cardinals

Ertz is not on the field as much as we would all like, but he is still getting plenty of opportunities (targets his last three games: 6, 6, 5). The Cardinals remain one of the worst teams in the NFL against the TE, and Ertz is an extreme-upside talent. His floor, honestly, should be about 3x this salary (you can’t beat that!), and his ceiling should be much higher than that!

Three TEs I Will NOT Be Using This Week – And Why

$5600 – JIMMY GRAHAM vs Packers

Sure, he’ll be used in “passing situations” and “red zone opportunities” in what is expected to be a very high-scoring game. But honestly, how did it work using Graham last week? Or how did it work using Calvin Johnson the last couple weeks that he played? When a guy is injured, you never know if the team is putting him out there as a decoy or as a true threat, and while Jimmy has a high ceiling, there are other guys – much safer guys (guys who won’t put you at risk of taking a zero!) – from whom you can reach the same ceiling.

$4300 – DELANIE WALKER vs Texans

A rookie QB making his first career start? No thanks! I’ll leave all Titans pass catchers alone.

$3800 – TRAVIS KELCE vs Rams

I was driving the Travis Kelce bandwagon at the start of the season, and even in the games in which he did not go off, he still brought a great return on his salary! I put the bandwagon on cruise control and jump-rolled out of the driver’s seat back when Kelce had to square off against Patrick Willis, however, and I have not yet gotten back on. It’s not about the usage (we all keep complaining about it, but he’s averaging 5 targets per game – which isn’t awful, especially in this price range), but it is about the matchup. For all their faults, the Rams are very strong at defending the TE. I love Kelce’s talent, but I’d rather look elsewhere this week.

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If you’ll excuse me, I’m going to make a choice to go grocery shopping now. My wife is out of town all week, and I’ve been living off Mexican carryout. It’s probably time to choose something different – maybe some prime rib, some veggies, and a few good nights of grilling.

In the meantime, you should choose to comment below if you have any comments to share, or if you have any players you are choosing this week that you think others should know about!

Good luck this week everyone!

NFL Week 8 Locks

NFL Locks of the Week:

Colts -3 @ STEELERS
The Steelers have a short week to prepare for MVP candidate Andrew Luck and may suffer from big heads after beating the Texans on MNF. The Colts are a force to be reckoned with this year and will drop the Steelers back down off their pedestal this Sunday. 

Eagles +2.5 @ CARDINALS
The Eagles are coming off the bye rested and ready for Carson Palmer and company. The Cardinals are allowing the second most yards to opposing wide receivers this season so expect a big day from Maclin and an upset. 

Texans -2 @ TITANS
Texans lost a tough one to the Steelers on MNF mainly due to two minute span where the Steelers capitalized on turnovers to score 21 unanswered points. They will want to hurt someone after that loss and Titans rookie QB Mettenberger is a likely target who is rumored to be getting his first start this weekend. 

Draftkings and FanDuel lineup help for week 7

Here's some great insight from the folks over at Rotogrinder.com for your Draftkings and FanDuel lineups for week 7

Quarterbacks

After dumping 16 quarterbacks down into the $6,500-or-less price point last week, a full half the league, DK has pared it back to fourteen this week. Not surprisingly, Tom Brady and Cam Newton were just one week stays after last weeks’ outbursts; this week they reside at $7,200 and $8,200, respectively. Two new quarterbacks to the Grout areMatt Ryan and Colin Kaepernick. Thanks to a lack of adjustment for the latter, expect this to be a one-night stand of sorts, for the 9ers signal caller
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Colin Kaepernick @ DEN – $6,500 – And we’re going to take advantage of said “lack of adjustment!” We’ve discussed, in the past, how there’s instant value in guys that go off on Monday night. The prices were already out beforeKaepernick went for 343-and-3 versus St. Louis, so the algorithm couldn’t take his fantasy point sprinkler into account. Like blueberries in a muffin, the value is baked right in. Also, filed under Those that don’t learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them, when above average quarterbacks’ prices drop, buy low. (See: Newton, Cam).

Ultimately, though, this play is based on something much less price-driven. This is the game of the week, San Francisco at Denver. Sunday Night. Tons o’ Hype, not unlike a playoff game. When the stakes get high, so do Kaepernick’s rushing yards. The playoffs the last couple of years exemplify that.

In 2012, Kaep had one game rushing in the 80 yard range during the regular season, but in the playoffs, his 181 yards against Green Bay were an NFL rushing record for QBs. Again, in 2013, he had one game with 80ish rush yards in the regular season, and in three playoff games, he scored no less than 7.5 rushing fantasy points in any of them. When he tucks that football on a designed boot-action run to the left, you want to be rooting for that, not against it. As a Packer fan, just trust me on that.

Left in the Bucket

Derek Carr v ARI – $5,800 – Who would have thought the Cardinals would be a passing matchup you blindly target?

Running Backs

There are only twelve running backs notin the Fantasy Grout price range (Sub-$5,600) this week. Still, running-back-by-committee has spread faster than African Motaba in the movie “Outbreak”, so those 12 guys get something the bulk of the list doesn’t, volume. Among the rest, you have to be choosy, but there is value available, if you search. Not a bad spot to look: The next five paragraphs!

Ahmad Bradshaw v CIN – $4,700 – Pop quiz: Who leads the NFL in running back targets in the red zone this year? Congratulations, you all passed! It wasAhmad Bradshaw. How did you all get it? Do I have a tell? The reason for this is not his dominant share of the team red zone touches, as Trent Richardson has 19 to Bradshaw’s 17. It is that the Colts have run 84 red zone plays, 10 more than any other team. Bradshaw’s targets are more productive than general RB touches too, as every receiving TD counts for 7! Despite Richardson taking back his role as the 3-to-2 Colts carries leader last week, Bradshaw’s role is perfectly suited for DraftKings full-PPR scoring. At a price of $5,600, he would have only gone below 2 PT/$K once this year and over 3 PT/$K three of six weeks.

Lamar Miller @ CHI – $5,300 – This is a second case this week where we’re picking on pricing errors. With Miller, it wasn’t his performance, but rather his role on the team that changed after the price was set. Knowshon Moreno was diagnosed with an ACL tear and will miss the remainder of the year. In the three games Miller played entirely withoutMoreno, he was a workhorse, by far out-toting any other Dolphin back.

Also, Miller has the three things you dream of in a DK back: Effectiveness (5.4YPC this year, as the Miami offensive line has gone from a weakness to a strength in a single year), Red Zone (three touchdowns inside the ten yard-line in the last two weeks and tied for ninth in red zone touches among running backs), and Receiving (four targets, three receptions per game).

Brandon Bolden v NYJ – $3,400 – I’m just here, juggling these flaming sticks. What could go wrong?

After Stevan Ridley went out towards the end of the 3rd quarter, the running back carries for New England were split as follows: seven for Bolden (one called back on a penalty) and two for Shane Vereen. If Bolden takes the “Ridley-role,” it is a valuable one, as Ridley had a surprisingly high usage in the red zone. Before destroying his knee, Ridleytouched the ball on 26% of the Patriots plays inside the twenty. If the Patriots are known for nothing else, it is that pass-play-down-to-the-two, hustle-back-to-the-line, don’t-let-the-other-team-sub, running back dive play. Let’s just hopeBolden is in the game on the play before!

Left in the Bucket

Alfred Morris v TEN – $4,700 – TD comin’.
Eddie Lacy v CAR – $4,700 – If not this week, everyone owes @DavisMattek an apology.
Storm Johnson v CLE – $3,400 – It is like eating food out of a dumpster: they may be kind of stinky carries, but at least he doesn’t have to share them.

Wide Receivers

There are 20-point games lurking in this sub-$5,100 space. Not just value, butVALUE! If you sniffed out 3 of DeSean Jackson, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, and Andre Holmes last week, you profited in the Millionaire Maker, period. Who’s up this week, ready to make a millionaire out of someone?

Percy Harvin @ STL – $4,100 – A top-quarterish matchup almost doesn’t matter. Harvin is so electric and gets the ball in ways so difficult to stop, that his performance is not defense dependent. His price is deflated due to conditions outside of his control (penalties nullifying scores two weeks ago and Dallas’ 38 minutes of possession last week). If Seattle makes a point to get him involved, as I expect, it will be via the sort of short plays that quickly rack up receptions, and points per them.

Michael Floyd @ OAK – $5,000 – More pricing. This one is Logan Thomas/Drew Stanton-induced. In two games withCarson Palmer this year, Floyd has nine receptions on fourteen targets, 166 yards, and a touchdown. Not to mention, Floydwas born in St. Paul, MN, while Larry Fitzgerald was born in Minneapolis, MN.USA Today Travel named St. Paul “the most romantic city in North America,” so if that doesn’t scream Start Michael Floyd I don’t know what does!

Andre Holmes v ARI – $4,800 – You remember when calling someone “Homes” was a thing? “Homes” came from “Homie,” which came from “Home Boy.” “Home Boy” has Latin American roots, referring to people who are from your original home area, and it may be derived from “hombre”. All of is true, but it still makes me giggle when I think of my friend Watson saying “What up Ho(l)mes.”

Also, why is Andre Holmes priced less than James Jones? Without a few oh-by-the-way junk time scores, we wouldn’t even remember what team Jones is on.Holmes has that big play ability you look for in a long shot, GPP, Fantasy Groutplay. He also gets the volume, having led the Raiders in targets, convincingly, over each of the last weeks. Let’s hope the answer to “What’s up, Holmes?” is “his PT/$K.”

Left in the Bucket

Allen Hurns v CLE – $3,200 – One catch’ll do it.
Jarius Wright @ BUF – $3,400 – It may take seven catches to get to 3 PT/$K, and that is very possible.
Davante Adams v CAR – $3,900 – As the idiom states, “A rising Aaron Rodgers lifts all receivers.”

Tight Ends

The nice part about picking a Grout-level tight end is that if he does nothing (known as “pulling a Larry”), it takesJulio Jones maybe two receptions to make up the 3 PT/$K. If you do happen to start a $4,500-or-less tight end that catches a touchdown, try to refrain from pooping yourself!

Jermaine Gresham @ IND – $3,500 –Gresham is typically not capable of getting value without a score, but circumstances change. He put up 6-for-70 on seven targets last week, thanks to every Bengal receiving option not named“Sanu” being hurt, and that won’t change this week at Lucas Oil. Couple that with the fact that Indianapolis has given up four 4+ reception, 70+ receiving yard games to tight ends this year, and you have as good an option as exists to return value.

Left in the Bucket

Dwayne Allen v CIN – $3,700 – Yes, a tight end score-a-palooza in Indianapolis.

Good luck this week everyone!

NFL WEEK 7 LOCKS OF THE WEEK

NFL Locks of the Week:

Seahawks -6.5 @ RAMS
The Seahawks had a short week to prepare for Dallas after travelling from across the country to play Washington so it's not all that surprising that Dallas beat them. Now they are travelling again but this time against a weaker opponent. Look for Seattle to get back on track with a big win.

BEARS -3.5 @ Dolphins
The Bears are 3-3 against the spread this season and the Dolphins are 3-2 after squeaking by with 0.5 points to cover against Green Bay last week. The Bears are back at home and Jay Cutler is having an impressive season with Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall racking up receiving yards. The Dolphins lost Moreno for the season and while they should make the game an exciting one, look for the Bears to pull out a 10 point victory.

Texans +4 @ STEELERS
J.J. Watt is making a strong case for Defensive POY and Jadaveon Clowney may rejoin him on MNF this week. Meanwhile the Steelers have been extremely inconsistent. Expect the Texans to pull off an upset after a long break after losing a close one to the Colts last Thursday.