Here's some great insight from the folks over at Rotogrinder.com for your Draftkings and FanDuel lineups for week 7
Quarterbacks
After dumping 16 quarterbacks down into the $6,500-or-less price point last week, a full half the league, DK has pared it back to fourteen this week. Not surprisingly, Tom Brady and Cam Newton were just one week stays after last weeks’ outbursts; this week they reside at $7,200 and $8,200, respectively. Two new quarterbacks to the Grout areMatt Ryan and Colin Kaepernick. Thanks to a lack of adjustment for the latter, expect this to be a one-night stand of sorts, for the 9ers signal caller
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Colin Kaepernick @ DEN – $6,500 – And we’re going to take advantage of said “lack of adjustment!” We’ve discussed, in the past, how there’s instant value in guys that go off on Monday night. The prices were already out beforeKaepernick went for 343-and-3 versus St. Louis, so the algorithm couldn’t take his fantasy point sprinkler into account. Like blueberries in a muffin, the value is baked right in. Also, filed under Those that don’t learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them, when above average quarterbacks’ prices drop, buy low. (See: Newton, Cam).
Ultimately, though, this play is based on something much less price-driven. This is the game of the week, San Francisco at Denver. Sunday Night. Tons o’ Hype, not unlike a playoff game. When the stakes get high, so do Kaepernick’s rushing yards. The playoffs the last couple of years exemplify that.
In 2012, Kaep had one game rushing in the 80 yard range during the regular season, but in the playoffs, his 181 yards against Green Bay were an NFL rushing record for QBs. Again, in 2013, he had one game with 80ish rush yards in the regular season, and in three playoff games, he scored no less than 7.5 rushing fantasy points in any of them. When he tucks that football on a designed boot-action run to the left, you want to be rooting for that, not against it. As a Packer fan, just trust me on that.
Left in the Bucket
Derek Carr v ARI – $5,800 – Who would have thought the Cardinals would be a passing matchup you blindly target?
Running Backs
There are only twelve running backs notin the Fantasy Grout price range (Sub-$5,600) this week. Still, running-back-by-committee has spread faster than African Motaba in the movie “Outbreak”, so those 12 guys get something the bulk of the list doesn’t, volume. Among the rest, you have to be choosy, but there is value available, if you search. Not a bad spot to look: The next five paragraphs!
Ahmad Bradshaw v CIN – $4,700 – Pop quiz: Who leads the NFL in running back targets in the red zone this year? Congratulations, you all passed! It wasAhmad Bradshaw. How did you all get it? Do I have a tell? The reason for this is not his dominant share of the team red zone touches, as Trent Richardson has 19 to Bradshaw’s 17. It is that the Colts have run 84 red zone plays, 10 more than any other team. Bradshaw’s targets are more productive than general RB touches too, as every receiving TD counts for 7! Despite Richardson taking back his role as the 3-to-2 Colts carries leader last week, Bradshaw’s role is perfectly suited for DraftKings full-PPR scoring. At a price of $5,600, he would have only gone below 2 PT/$K once this year and over 3 PT/$K three of six weeks.
Lamar Miller @ CHI – $5,300 – This is a second case this week where we’re picking on pricing errors. With Miller, it wasn’t his performance, but rather his role on the team that changed after the price was set. Knowshon Moreno was diagnosed with an ACL tear and will miss the remainder of the year. In the three games Miller played entirely withoutMoreno, he was a workhorse, by far out-toting any other Dolphin back.
Also, Miller has the three things you dream of in a DK back: Effectiveness (5.4YPC this year, as the Miami offensive line has gone from a weakness to a strength in a single year), Red Zone (three touchdowns inside the ten yard-line in the last two weeks and tied for ninth in red zone touches among running backs), and Receiving (four targets, three receptions per game).
Brandon Bolden v NYJ – $3,400 – I’m just here, juggling these flaming sticks. What could go wrong?
After Stevan Ridley went out towards the end of the 3rd quarter, the running back carries for New England were split as follows: seven for Bolden (one called back on a penalty) and two for Shane Vereen. If Bolden takes the “Ridley-role,” it is a valuable one, as Ridley had a surprisingly high usage in the red zone. Before destroying his knee, Ridleytouched the ball on 26% of the Patriots plays inside the twenty. If the Patriots are known for nothing else, it is that pass-play-down-to-the-two, hustle-back-to-the-line, don’t-let-the-other-team-sub, running back dive play. Let’s just hopeBolden is in the game on the play before!
Left in the Bucket
Alfred Morris v TEN – $4,700 – TD comin’.
Eddie Lacy v CAR – $4,700 – If not this week, everyone owes @DavisMattek an apology.
Storm Johnson v CLE – $3,400 – It is like eating food out of a dumpster: they may be kind of stinky carries, but at least he doesn’t have to share them.
Wide Receivers
There are 20-point games lurking in this sub-$5,100 space. Not just value, butVALUE! If you sniffed out 3 of DeSean Jackson, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, and Andre Holmes last week, you profited in the Millionaire Maker, period. Who’s up this week, ready to make a millionaire out of someone?
Percy Harvin @ STL – $4,100 – A top-quarterish matchup almost doesn’t matter. Harvin is so electric and gets the ball in ways so difficult to stop, that his performance is not defense dependent. His price is deflated due to conditions outside of his control (penalties nullifying scores two weeks ago and Dallas’ 38 minutes of possession last week). If Seattle makes a point to get him involved, as I expect, it will be via the sort of short plays that quickly rack up receptions, and points per them.
Michael Floyd @ OAK – $5,000 – More pricing. This one is Logan Thomas/Drew Stanton-induced. In two games withCarson Palmer this year, Floyd has nine receptions on fourteen targets, 166 yards, and a touchdown. Not to mention, Floydwas born in St. Paul, MN, while Larry Fitzgerald was born in Minneapolis, MN.USA Today Travel named St. Paul “the most romantic city in North America,” so if that doesn’t scream Start Michael Floyd I don’t know what does!
Andre Holmes v ARI – $4,800 – You remember when calling someone “Homes” was a thing? “Homes” came from “Homie,” which came from “Home Boy.” “Home Boy” has Latin American roots, referring to people who are from your original home area, and it may be derived from “hombre”. All of is true, but it still makes me giggle when I think of my friend Watson saying “What up Ho(l)mes.”
Also, why is Andre Holmes priced less than James Jones? Without a few oh-by-the-way junk time scores, we wouldn’t even remember what team Jones is on.Holmes has that big play ability you look for in a long shot, GPP, Fantasy Groutplay. He also gets the volume, having led the Raiders in targets, convincingly, over each of the last weeks. Let’s hope the answer to “What’s up, Holmes?” is “his PT/$K.”
Left in the Bucket
Allen Hurns v CLE – $3,200 – One catch’ll do it.
Jarius Wright @ BUF – $3,400 – It may take seven catches to get to 3 PT/$K, and that is very possible.
Davante Adams v CAR – $3,900 – As the idiom states, “A rising Aaron Rodgers lifts all receivers.”
Tight Ends
The nice part about picking a Grout-level tight end is that if he does nothing (known as “pulling a Larry”), it takesJulio Jones maybe two receptions to make up the 3 PT/$K. If you do happen to start a $4,500-or-less tight end that catches a touchdown, try to refrain from pooping yourself!
Jermaine Gresham @ IND – $3,500 –Gresham is typically not capable of getting value without a score, but circumstances change. He put up 6-for-70 on seven targets last week, thanks to every Bengal receiving option not named“Sanu” being hurt, and that won’t change this week at Lucas Oil. Couple that with the fact that Indianapolis has given up four 4+ reception, 70+ receiving yard games to tight ends this year, and you have as good an option as exists to return value.
Left in the Bucket
Dwayne Allen v CIN – $3,700 – Yes, a tight end score-a-palooza in Indianapolis.
Good luck this week everyone!
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